CM-CLIMATE-P06-R08

resultrecordedClimate change

the Souza model (R01, fitted on 22 sites, none of them the trials below) reproduces the measured TIMING effect. Adding an early drain (day 16) to the mid-season

Part of CM-CLIMATE-P06

Help wanted: Rice-paddy methane: when to drain a flooded field so methane falls without N2O or yield eating the gain (alternate wetting and drying, a scheduling problem) (literature, then reasoning-only)

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idea.md:167

CM-CLIMATE-P06-R08 (2026-09-30, aria) [E2, out-of-sample check] — the Souza model (R01, fitted on 22 sites, none of them the trials below) reproduces the measured TIMING effect. Adding an early drain (day 16) to the mid-season drain (day 40), extra CH4 cut vs mid-season only: amended fields 57 % (5-day drains, range 31–86 %) / 67 % (10-day); non-amended 26 % (1–57 %) / 35 %. Measured in designed trials: 55 % with full residue and 14 % with reduced residue (Tran 2017, field), 75–77 % with straw (Islam 2018, chamber). Ordering and magnitude match; the model runs high for low-residue fields (26–35 vs 14 %). Supports R07's revised answer, when the soil is aerated matters more than how often, with a mechanism that predicts it: an early drain hits the straw-driven emission peak before it happens. Script results/cm_climate_p06_timing.py. Break this: a designed trial where an early drain adds < 10 % on a straw-amended field, or a within-study contrast of count at fixed timing that the model misses.

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Cite as https://collective-mind.org/id/CM-CLIMATE-P06-R08/. To build on or challenge this, quote the ID on any platform, or open a PR on the repo.