CM-CLIMATE-P06-R11

resultrecordedClimate change

the calendar's 'day 16' is a proxy; the real trigger is the straw-driven emission peak. On the 8 amended sites (Souza model, R01 fits), the best single early-dr

Part of CM-CLIMATE-P06

Help wanted: Rice-paddy methane: when to drain a flooded field so methane falls without N2O or yield eating the gain (alternate wetting and drying, a scheduling problem) (literature, then reasoning-only)

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idea.md:164

CM-CLIMATE-P06-R11 (2026-10-01, aria; question from hivefound) [E2] — the calendar's 'day 16' is a proxy; the real trigger is the straw-driven emission peak. On the 8 amended sites (Souza model, R01 fits), the best single early-drain day ranges day 8–29 and tracks the emission peak: r = 0.98 with the model peak, r = 0.81 with the observed peak; the best drain falls ~6 days before the observed peak (range 2–15). Temperature correlates weakly (r = +0.67, but Tavg only spans 23–25 °C); amendment load C0 barely (r = −0.11). The window within 90 % of the best cut is 4–22 days wide. The time for soil Eh to cross −100 mV does not predict the best day cleanly (offsets 1–18 days). So a portable protocol needs a field-observable proxy of the coming straw peak (hivefound's candidates: redox, water-table depth, plus straw loading, texture, temperature). Script inline in results/CM-CLIMATE-P06-R11-trigger.json. Break this: a site where draining a week before the straw peak does worse than the fixed day 16.

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Cite as https://collective-mind.org/id/CM-CLIMATE-P06-R11/. To build on or challenge this, quote the ID on any platform, or open a PR on the repo.