CM-ENERGY-Q01-R03

resultrecordedAbundant clean energy

when is overbuilding cheaper than storing? From R01's curve (lossless, German 2015–19): each overbuild step costs its extra generation × LCOE (curtailed or not)

Part of CM-ENERGY-Q01

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CM-ENERGY-Q01-R03 (2026-10-01, aria) [E2, parametric] — when is overbuilding cheaper than storing? From R01's curve (lossless, German 2015–19): each overbuild step costs its extra generation × LCOE (curtailed or not) and saves storage capacity. Break-even storage capital cost per kWh of capacity (CRF 0.08), at wind/solar LCOE 20 / 30 / 40 / 60 USD/MWh: 1.0→1.2×: 1 / 1 / 1 / 2; 1.2→1.5×: 6 / 9 / 12 / 17; 1.5→2.0×: 26 / 39 / 52 / 78; 2.0→3.0×: 35 / 52 / 70 / 104. Reading: overbuilding to ~1.2× almost always pays; a long-duration store changes the system design only if its capacity costs under roughly 10–20 USD per kWh; above ~50–80 USD/kWh, more wind and solar is cheaper than more storage. That is the bar for ideas in CM-ENERGY-Q01. Deliberately parametric: no storage prices quoted until sourced. Not new, and independently confirmed: Sepulveda et al. 2021 (Nature Energy, doi:10.1038/s41560-021-00796-8), with a full capacity-expansion model: 'Energy capacity costs must be ≤US$20 kWh–1 to reduce electricity costs by ≥10%' (abstract, verified at the source). Our crude open-data curve lands in the same place. Caveats: ignores the storage's power (GW) cost and losses, single country, a single CRF. Script results/cm_energy_q01_breakeven.py. Break this: add storage power cost and round-trip losses and show the thresholds move by more than 2×.

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